Gordon Brown says Britain's economic woes are from America
The luxury property blog has already made it’s prediction for the luxury real estate market in 2009 – no recovery in the market until such times as the financial services sector recovers and becomes more accountable. So, this is a look at other people’s opinions and predictions for 2009.
The Motley fool points out (rightly I believe) that another issue faced by the industry as a whole is the problem of over-building. During the boom years it was more than possible to announce a project and sell out before the foundations were started, but that has now changed. With excess stock in all but the tightest markets, until such times as developers begin accepting that the market has changed, take the losses and sell at prices well below current asking prices, we will be stuck in a rut. Why I think the US financial crisis is alive and well.
The International Herald Tribune properties blog, agrees that 2009 is not looking good, but suggests Americans will be more likely to look abroad for property. Not entirely sure I agree with that suggestion, for two reasons – one, the dollar may currently be strong against the Euro, but that could change at the drop of a hat and probably will do when the up-coming bad news hits the currency markets, and two – there will be more than enough bargains in most of America’s back yard over the next couple of years. Crystal ball predictions for 2009.
Jim Crawford of Atlanta RE/MAX believes the market will start to bottom end-2009, and when it does, there will be more emphasis on location and price rather than out and out luxury. He also suggests that the luxury market will see the greatest price corrections of any segment and luxury home foreclosures will increase dramatically in 2009. No arguments here, although I see bottom a little further in the future. 2009 real estate predictions.
HGTV’s frontdoor is predicting more realtors and buyers turning to video as the preferred marketing solution along with a “massive increase in the number of youtube videos posted for home sale listings. I agree with this one 100%, but there are far better alternatives for marketing a luxury property using video than youtube. They also have some other interesting observations. Top 10 Things to Expect in the Housing Market in 2009.
RIS Media are calling for the need to accept and adopt the paradigm shifts taking root in the industry. Which boils down to accepting economic reality, the obvious waning of consumer confidence, the new lending landscape and adopting new technologies. An interesting article this one and well worth reading. Reshaping real estate.
While most of the optimists in the US market seem to have disappeared as reality sets in, the UK still boasts a considerable number. If any market is heavily over-valued it is the UK’s. Yet with real estate agencies closing faster than you can count them, rising unemployment, retailers shutting up shop almost by the minute and the pound at an all time low, professional real estate agents are still happy to predict the bubble continuing to grow.
David Bexton of smartnewhomes.com, in an article for “The Mortgage Introducer,” is suggesting that house prices in the UK will fall just 5% in 2009, turn around before year end and start climbing again by 2010. 2009 UK property market predictions. Sure, everyone is entitled to their predictions, but I think Mr. Bexton’s crystal ball may be a little clouded.
The Halifax and Nationwide Building societies both declined to issue market forecasts for 2009, but that hasn’t stopped a few optimistic estate agents throwing their predictions around. According to the Daily Telegraph, Hamptons International also expects house prices to fall by only 5% and bottom out in spring 2009. Sharply at odds with the head of Barclays bank, John Varley who feels another 18% drop is in order. I actually put both of these down as wildly optimistic. One has only to look at the US markets over the last two years for a look at the short term future of the UK. Where will house prices go in 2009?
Many people in the UK are under the mistaken impression that the massive infusion of capital into the British banking system is designed to help the beleaguered home owner. This mistaken impression is basically being created by the Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, lying through his back teeth and calling publicly for banks to start lending again.
I hate to burst yet another bubble, but the bank bailouts are to prevent the complete collapse of the banking system, not to boost house prices by starting another borrow ’till you go broke cycle before this one is even completed. Mr. Brown, long claiming that the UK’s problems are all imported from America even recently had the temerity to suggest that he had been warning about an economic crisis for the last ten years. As Michael Fallon, a senior conservative member of the Treasury select committee put it, “It is absurd. It’s like an arsonist pretending that he invented the smoke alarm.”
